Six months ago, by unleashing the Al-Aqsa Storm operation, the Palestinian Resistance triggered a process destined to change not only the political and military balance in the region, but to add an important piece to the global geo-political confrontation, not by an alternative power to the US hegemon but from a nation in the southern hemisphere. Because the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is first and foremost an anti-colonial and national liberation struggle, and this should never be forgotten.
In these six months, and especially in the early stages, attention was focused first on the military surprise, with which the Resistance caught the IDF defenses unprepared, and subsequently on the disproportionate Israeli reaction. What was not noted, or at least not underlined, is that Israeli unpreparedness was much more political than military - and the latter, if anything, is a consequence of the former. Israel was so sure of itself, and of the unconditional support of the United States, that it concentrated on what were its most coveted territorial objectives, namely the West Bank. It is here that the colonial settlements are concentrated, and the electoral base of the far right that supports the Netanyahu government, and it is here - for a series of historical but also extremely practical reasons - that expansionist appetites are focused. Gaza was considered a cross between Alcatraz and an Indian reservation. By being totally focused on its own navel, Israel failed to realize something much more important. And that is that the ongoing conflict in Europe, for twenty months now, had radically changed the global strategic balance.
The Palestinian operation, therefore, appeared in the eyes of Netanyahu (and his government of fanatical extremists) as a perfect opportunity to, on the one hand, postpone his indictment indefinitely, and on the other to give free rein to the racial hatred that the Israelis feel for the Arabs, perhaps trying to expel as many as possible from the territory of Palestine.
Confident in its military superiority, Israel launched its armed forces into a conflict that it took for granted it would win, given the enormous asymmetry. In doing so, they commit two enormous military errors: not considering the fact that a guerrilla war cannot be defeated with a brutal invasion (which, if anything, fuels it), and that not having achievable strategic objectives means condemning oneself to defeat.
If you try to mentally rewind the film of these six months, you will see how a whole series of stages foreseen and proclaimed as harbingers of victory have gradually simply disappeared from the propaganda narrative. The final result is that, in fact, nothing else remains but propaganda. Although they have massively employed every weapon system at their disposal, the results in the field are improbably low.
In just six months, Israel ended up finding itself in a situation in many ways similar to the American one in Vietnam – only it took the US a few years to get there.
When Washington realized that the war with the Viet Cong was going badly, they thought they could solve it by simply masking the reality. Operation 'Search & Destroy' was launched, which should have made it possible to flush out the Viet from the villages in the jungle; but predictably, the results were practically insignificant, the pressure on the operational units became greater, and in the end it all translated into the fact that the marines began to massacre indiscriminately, counting every civilian as a guerrilla. So the army press releases were full of triumphalist figures, but in the end the Americans had to leave in a hurry.
What is happening in Gaza now is exactly the same thing. Civilians are massacred daily, three-quarters of them women and children, and then the IDF reports that it has killed thousands of Palestinian fighters here and there.
We don't even talk about the famous "Hamas tunnels" anymore, because very simply they managed to deactivate a very small part of them, and almost always limiting themselves to blowing up the exposed entrances. After demolishing and raking practically every square meter of the Strip, the IDF was unable to find and free even one of the prisoners held by the Resistance. In six months, it lost at least a fifth of its armored vehicles. Not to mention the fallen (whose official number is ridiculously underestimated), the wounded permanently disabled, etc.
They dreamed of expelling as many Palestinians as possible from Gaza, but what has happened since October 7 is that 500,000 Israelis with dual passports have fled, and they are unlikely to go back. They forced one and a half million civilians to crowd into Rafah and its surroundings, in the extreme south of the Strip, but in the meantime almost 200,000 Israelis had to flee from the areas on the border with Lebanon.
The port of Eilat, on the Red Sea, is practically closed. The economic impact of the conflict is enormous, with entire sectors paralyzed due to the blockade of Arab labor and the recall of reservists [1].
Six months after everything started, Israel continues to tell fairy tales that clash with actual reality. It claims to have destroyed 19 of the 24 Hamas brigades, and that the remainder are in Rafah (to justify the intention to attack this last city by land too). But then, as it happens, not a day goes by without news of clashes and fighting almost everywhere. In Gaza City, practically razed to the ground, they cannot withdraw their troops because the Resistance is always strong and active. They withdraw the units deployed in Khan Younis, in the south of the Strip, claiming to have achieved the local tactical objectives, and only a couple of hours later an IDF command center is bombed from there...
The same strategic idea that is now being promoted, that of the 'Netzarim corridor' (a road axis that divides the Strip in two, separating the north from the south, and permanently manned by the IDF), is clearly insignificant. Not only because, obviously, the Resistance will continue to use its network of tunnels to pass from one side to the other when and how it wants, but because that garrison will become a privileged target, and will not have any significant impact from a military point of view.
Without a strategic plan and achievable objectives, the Israeli government carries on day by day, gradually looking for tricks capable of buying it time, and above all of dragging the United States into its crazy adventure, which instead has absolutely none want, and if it weren't for the indispensable power of the Jewish lobby (fundamental in an election year) they would perhaps even have left them to their fate. A continuous game of raises, up to the risk of an all-in attack by attacking the Iranian embassy in Damascus, killing some IRGC generals.
Six months ago, the Palestinian Resistance truly changed everything; and even if the price paid is very high, nothing can ever go back to the way it was before.
The only tunnel Israel has managed to penetrate is the one it entered alone. And you can't see any light at the bottom.
Note
1 – One of the aspects that we tend to underestimate is that of the post-war period. From the moment hostilities cease, investments from Arab countries aimed at reconstruction will pour into Gaza, which means that Palestinian labor will be fully employed in this, and therefore will not be available for the Israeli labor market for years to come. Between Israelis who have fled abroad and Palestinians who will not return to work in Israel, between 600,000 and 1,000,000 workers will be lost, in a country that has fewer than 10 million inhabitants. 15/16% less workforce, practically overnight.