Disprove the prophecy

While Moscow continues to send increasingly clear signals, the West remains deaf and autistically moves forward with its 'strategy' of confrontation. With the very real risk that, if the bellicose processes are not defused in time, we will find ourselves in a disastrous conflict right here in Europe.

Carrying out geopolitical and/or strategic analyses, basically means trying to interpret (known) facts, to make sense of them - if the analysis is aimed at the past - or to hypothesize scenarios - if it is aimed at the future.
In yesterday's speech for Pandora's Box - “Towards a great war in Europe?” https://ivdp.it/14134-2/ – thinking about this arms race that is feverishly pervading Europe, now prey to an inexplicable and senseless fear of Russia, I pointed out what in my opinion is a real and concrete danger , that is, faced with a considerable increase in NATO military force on its borders, with the repetition of increasingly frequent and aggressive maneuvers by the same, Moscow - which already no longer has any faith in the words of Western countries (see under "security agreements" Minsk I and II” and expansion of the Atlantic Alliance to the east against the word given) – ends up considering all this not as a set of defensive measures, as European governments claim, but as preparations to implement a real and own aggression against Russia, moreover poorly disguised. And therefore, completely rationally, at a certain point it may decide that it is more appropriate not to wait for these preparations to be completed, and instead decide to launch a preventive attack.
This danger - which in the interview I defined as "a self-fulfilling prophecy" - is precisely such, we cannot have any certainty about it. Certainly, there is a trend that goes in this direction.

As I often like to repeat, the American West is like an old lion, which in its senile delirium refuses to see and accept its own decline, and continues to roar thinking that this is enough to scare the young lions. Furthermore, in this delirium of his, he is also absolutely incapable of looking at things even from the opponent's point of view. Which, obviously, does not mean sharing it, but which is necessary to know and understand, precisely to face the fight sensibly. As Sun Tzu said, “if you know your enemy and yourself, your victory is certain.”
The West, on the other hand, first proceeds propagandistically to demonize the enemy, describing him as crazy, devoid of any legitimate motivation ("the new Hitler"), then adopts this propagandistic approach as descriptive of the actual reality, and literally does not pose the problem of understanding what think the enemy.

The Russian enemy, however, should be understood in order to predict his actions and reactions.
While we play with the fairy tale "there is an attacked and there is an aggressor", erasing 8 years of civil war and Atlantic fomentation of the Ukronazi gangs, Moscow has perceived the Ukrainian conflict as a NATO proxy war against Russia – which in fact it is. And when Putin, the other day, said that he believed that the biggest mistake was intervening too late, we should reflect on what it means, and what it could mean tomorrow.
When today Lavrov, a politician and statesman of the highest level, whose moderation and reasonableness are indisputable, clearly says that “the West has declared war on Russia – there is no doubt, they do not hide it”, it would be good to understand that the meaning of these declarations is unequivocal: Russia feels that it is under attack, that it is constantly indicated as a threat (but at the same time as a coveted prey...), and therefore, although it certainly does not stupidly think of starting a global war , certainly will not be willing to let NATO start this war when it feels ready to do so.

Moscow knows it has – now – a series of strategic advantages, but it also knows that NATO is working hard to fill these gaps. To think that he lets it happen is more than naive, it's crazy. In this sense, the words of Putin and Lavrov are very clear.

Moreover, Putin had already been so in 2008, at the Munich conference on security in Europe. But the USA (out of interest) and Europe (out of stupidity) turned a deaf ear. The party in the first class lounge of the Titanic continued as if nothing had happened.
It is certainly true that the future is not written anywhere, and therefore it is not at all certain that the prophecy will come true. But the opposite is not the case either, and many, too many elements are accumulating in that direction. These are processes that take years to develop, even if they don't appear too obvious, but the longer they go on the more difficult it becomes to stop them and reverse course.
And anyway, there aren't many; in my opinion, this situation (unless of significant innovations) could reach the critical temperature within 7/8 years.
This is why it is urgent that awareness of the danger - however one thinks of it - spreads as widely as possible. In fact, without pressure from below and against it, everything will continue as if by force of inertia. And if we crash into the iceberg, there won't be enough lifeboats for us second and third class people...

🟥🟥🟥 𝐟𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐦𝐞 𝐨𝐧 𝐓𝐞𝐥𝐞𝐠𝐫𝐚𝐦!