Fourth front?
While the situation on the Egyptian border of the Gaza Strip is worsening, a statement has arrived from the Syrian government - so far very out of the way in relation to the conflict - which is in some ways surprising. Both for the content and for the timing. The Damascus declaration, in fact, sounds quite strong: “Syria is fully ready for another war with Israel, and it is up to Syria to decide when and where such a war will take place.” Further on, the Syrian intention to recover the Golan Heights, illegally occupied by Israel, is reiterated.
As is known, Syria is still devastated by a ten-year war, has a part of its territory de facto occupied by Kurdish and Islamic forces (SDF) under US control - which also has some illegal military bases there - and another occupied by pro-Turkish militias. It is constantly under air attack by Israel and, often, also by the Turkish air force. In short, it finds itself in a situation that is certainly neither happy nor easy, far from being such as to push Damascus towards a new open war. Furthermore, in Syria there is a military presence of both Russia and Iran, two allied countries. It is unthinkable that he could make such a choice without consulting and coordinating with Moscow and Tehran.
However, the context in which this sudden Syrian harshness is placed is perhaps capable of explaining something in this regard too.
Fact one. The US intervention, with Jordanian and British support, both against the Iraqi and Iranian formations belonging to the Axis of Resistance (in Syria and Iraq), and against Ansarullah in Yemen, clearly did not have the hoped-for intimidating effect. The attacks on US bases and shipping variously connected to Israel continue.
Fact two. The Israeli offensive on Gaza, beyond the genocidal massacre of civilians, is not producing any real military results against the fighting formations of the Resistance. Only a small part of the tunnels has been discovered and destroyed, the prisoner soldiers are all still in the hands of the Resistance (1), after the withdrawal of the IDF from Gaza City, even the Israeli press recognizes that Hamas has regained control of them. In Khan Younis and throughout the south there is still fighting almost daily.
Fact three. In a desperate attempt to postpone the redde rationem, the Netanyahu government now claims that there can be no victory without the occupation of Rafah and the Philadelphia corridor. Although he is perfectly aware that this would provoke a crisis with Egypt, it would further sour relations with Washington, and would create many problems for the Israeli armed forces themselves. In the Rafah area, in fact, all the inhabitants of Gaza who the IDF has gradually displaced from other areas are refugees, something like 1,400,000 people (out of a total population of approximately 2,300,000) concentrated in a very small space. Penetrating such a densely populated – and hostile – area is not at all easy, and risks producing more problems than results.
Fact four. The IDF is in trouble. Netanyahu decided to once again recall the reservists, who had been discharged after the withdrawal from Gaza City; a very costly choice for the Tel Aviv economy, already severely tested by these four months of war. At the same time, the IDF announced the immediate redeployment of the 36th division from Gaza to the border with Lebanon, due to the escalation of clashes with Hezbollah.
All this demonstrates, on the one hand, the lack of any strategic, political and military plan on the part of the Israeli leadership. Repeating that the goal is "victory" means nothing in the absence of a realistic plan to achieve it. Netanyahu increasingly resembles Zelensky. On the other hand, it attests to the fact that Israel is not in control of the situation, and is forced to continually move its pawns from one side of the chessboard to the other, for the simple fact that it does not have enough to control it entirely.
Returning then to the sudden bellicose declaration from Damascus. It is clear that, however weakened, Syria is an active part of the Axis of Resistance, and is therefore part of the overall strategic plan that the Axis, under the prudent Iranian leadership, is carrying forward. Even if we cannot know what this plan is, it is easy to understand what the final objectives are, and what tactics they intend to use.
They intend to wear down the enemy - to be understood both as the Israeli state and the United States - through a skillful dosage of force, exercised in different times, ways and sectors. They want to wear him out until he collapses. And to do this, they must not give him any respite, when he is in difficulty they will increase the pressure, when he takes a breather they will withdraw.
The meaning of the Syrian message, therefore, is probably a warning of a higher level. It could mean "don't make false steps, don't put yourself in a situation that you doesn't could manage, because in that case we will fall on you too." It is, in essence, a psy-ops operation, of psychological pressure. What is left unsaid is far beyond the implicit threat. The profound meaning is: if tomorrow Israel finds itself in serious difficulties, if it appears like a wounded animal, everyone will jump on it, including those who now - for convenience - remain ambiguously friends. It will not only be the countries linked to the Resistance, but also many other Arab countries. Egypt first and foremost.
Perhaps never before, Israel is risking everything. If you dance with the devil, he leads the dance.
Note
1 - On the night between 11 and 12 February, during a special forces operation, carried out during an intense bombardment on the city of Rafah, the IDF managed for the first time to free two prisoners, Fernando Simon Marman and Norberto Louis Har.