ISRAEL TOWARDS REDDE RATIONEM
As Trump begins his trip to the Middle East, totally focused on strengthening relations with friendly Arab countries (with whom he exchanges promises of colossal deals [1]), blatantly ignoring Israel and Netanyahu, things in the region seem to be taking a turn that is decidedly unwelcome to the Knesset guest. Even though US envoy Witkoff reiterates that the US and Israel are closer than ever, and from Tel Aviv they are once again sending a negotiating delegation to Doha, it appears more and more evident that the rift between the two countries is now a crack that is widening day after day.
Trump has simply begun to treat Netanyahu like any other Zelensky, taking initiatives across the board - and at every level - simply without consulting him; indeed, without even informing him.
He has started negotiations with Iran, on a basis that is extremely unwelcome to Israel - which would have actually wanted to start a war against Tehran.
He has disengaged from the (failed) confrontation with Yemen, leaving the Jewish state completely exposed on that front.
He continues to exert pressure for a ceasefire in Gaza, described as a dead-end street [2] - agreeing in this with what the IDF Chief of Staff, Halevi, has argued.
In no time at all he even managed to bring home the Israeli-American prisoner Edan Alexander [3], dealing directly with Hamas - and thus demonstrating that negotiation is the only way to free the last prisoners of the Palestinian Resistance.
In short, given Israel's reluctance to adapt to the US strategic line, or even just to confront it, he has simply decided to ignore Israel, and to move in complete autonomy. A plastic way to represent that Washington's support is no longer free and guaranteed regardless. To which the Israeli leader reacted with obvious irritation: "I think we will have to detox from US security assistance".
Too bad that this is practically impossible, even less so in the current phase, with the country effectively at war on five different fronts, deeply divided internally, and with an economy shaken by the longest conflict in its history.
The two leaders also seem somehow engaged in a personal confrontation, in which neither of them wants to give in first. And, inevitably, the deeper the rift deepens, the more impossible it will become to remedy it. In this tug of war, however, it is Trump who practically holds all the cards. Not only because Israel depends more than ever on US economic-military (and "toxic", according to Netanyahu...) assistance, but also because by freeing itself from the constraints connected to the historic strategic partnership between the two countries, it finds itself with a free hand to develop its plans with the Arab world. While the Zionist leader has only a couple of cards in his hand: the lack of a real political alternative to his leadership (and his strategic plan) within Israel, and the continuation of the war ad ibitum.
At this point, therefore, he has no other alternative than to try to force the hand, before the situation gets completely out of his control [4]. His latest statement ("In the coming days we will act with all our strength to complete the operation and bring Hamas to its knees. The situation has changed. We are in a situation where I cannot give all the details now, but in the coming days we will begin the final phase of the operation: the complete defeat and destruction of Hamas.") seems to go in this direction. Even if he has been indicating this objective since October 8, 2023 (without ever even getting close to it), it is clear that the storytelling is now too worn out, and Israeli society is tired of hearing it repeated in vain. In essence, therefore, it is as if everything is being played for broke. If the final offensive (which will start after Trump's departure from the M.O.) fails to achieve its objective ("the complete defeat and destruction of Hamas"), his credibility will collapse, and without a supporter in Washington he will find himself - precisely - like any Zelensky, an impotent but immovable leader. At least until he becomes so much of a hindrance that anyone in his place will become preferable [5].
Notes
1 - Saudi Arabia promises multi-billion dollar investments in the US economy, spread over the next few years, while the US promises to build a nuclear power plant together in the country. The Emirates (UAE) promise 300 billion to invest mainly in the defense industry. Qatar gives Trump (causing much discussion for the forced way in which it decided to circumvent the ban on receiving gifts from foreign states) a Boeing 747-8, called Flying Palace, worth 400 million dollars, which will become the new Air Force One…
2 - Witkoff: "We (United States) We want the hostages returned, but Israel is not ready to end the war. Israel is prolonging the war, even if we do not see where further progress can be made".
3 - Who refused to meet Netanyahu…
4 - The internal rifts, on the issue of the prisoners, are deepening day by day. A group of relatives of prisoners went to Qatar to meet Trump, essentially to ask him to negotiate for their release. 550 former Israeli security officials, including senior officials from the IDF, Mossad, Shin Bet, NSC and Foreign Service, sent a letter to President Trump, urging him to promote a ceasefire and the return of the hostages.
5 - Israeli President Herzog: "Netanyahu is expected to make a drastic decision on his political future, making a deal with the attorney general and withdrawing from Israeli politics in exchange for the closure of the corruption cases against him."