THE AMERICAN FROG

As with any self-respecting farce, Trump’s communication of the Persian Gulf conflict has its gags—except, frankly, they’re all too recurring. Repeating it once, twice, maybe three times—as long as they’re well-placed within the narrative—can still be effective, but it becomes just a tiredly repetitive cliché. Some have kept count: since the start of the war—February 28, 2026—Trump has now used TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) 67 times. Sixty-seven. And now the timing is getting ever closer, ever more burning, because if the gag itself isn’t effective anymore, you have to focus everything on timing.

So on Friday night you say you’re going to unleash hell, and by Sunday morning you’ve already completely backtracked.
And, obviously, all this no longer has any effect on the energy markets; the game is definitely too overused.
But the script remains unchanged, impervious to the boos from the audience.
Mohammad Bin Salman called President Trump and asked him not to attack Iran.
Trump: “Iran and other Middle Eastern countries have just asked us to refrain from any attack.”
Tehran: “Iran did not ask Trump not to attack.”

That the Gulf countries are fed up (and empty pockets...) with all this is all too clear, and they certainly didn’t wait until the last minute to let Washington know. Just yesterday, a desperate appeal was made by the ruler of Bahrain to Iran: “For the sake of the Prophet of Allah, don’t attack us!” To which the Iranian Foreign Ministry responded by reminding the kingdom of its responsibilities and, almost incidentally, that it was born from a secession from Iranian territory...

The problem is always the same, and it’s called exhaustion. Long-range strike munitions (Tomahawk first and foremost), anti-missile munitions (Patriot and THAAD), and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. In short, the United States is at the end of its tether... And what’s most lacking is strategic vision—not to mention courage. Because it obviously takes a lot of it to admit that you’ve dragged (or let yourself be dragged) the country into a resoundingly losing war, and that you don’t know how to get out of it.

Meanwhile, the New York Times informs us that US allies believe the Trump administration’s war against Iran is heading for a strategic defeat. And this is clearly the perception, especially among countries in the region, which have lost a great deal and risk losing a great deal (in addition to Bahrain, Kuwait, itself a former Iraqi province).

However, it would be a resounding mistake to place all the blame on Trump. Aside from the fact that there are members of his administration—both civilian and military—who continue to want to continue the war, there is no real initiative to break this cycle; not even the oft-cited J.D. Vance—in my opinion decidedly overrated—is able to move beyond small and temporary lapses. It’s obvious that if we continue like this, the US position will be increasingly weaker, and Iran’s increasingly stronger. Therefore, the later we get out of this situation, the worse it will be, because Washington will have to accept harsher conditions. And by now, Tehran is all too aware of America’s unreliability, so any negotiations—when the time comes for real ones—will require concrete steps before they begin: lifting sanctions, returning stolen Iranian funds, Israeli withdrawals, and an end to the war on all fronts.

But no one in the White House, or anywhere near it, has the guts to say, “Okay, that’s enough. Continuing like this is pointless; let’s find the best possible compromise and go home.” And this lack of courage is only raising the temperature of the water, while the US frog is boiling. And Tehran is grateful.