The imperial katabasis
Although it is one of the things that happen most frequently, we should never forget the lesson of von Clausewitz, war as the continuation of politics by other means. Therefore not only is war - every war - already a political act in itself, but his objectives, although he tries to achieve them through the military instrument, are and remain of a political nature. Therefore, a war that fails in its political objectives is a lost war, even if it has prevailed in every battle.
The Ukrainian war, for example, began with obviously different political objectives for both sides; but above all, at a certain point he saw Russia modify its objectives, or better yet, he saw it modify the military strategy through which to achieve them. Among these objectives, territorial gains have always been secondary, while the main focus has always been on the demilitarization of Ukraine (and its denazification). An objective that Moscow ultimately had to pursue through the most radical path, namely the material destruction of the Ukrainian armed forces. Objective now almost completely achieved, and obtained by applying a tactic and strategy based on the massive attrition of the enemy. Not a blitzkrieg, nor a devastating destructive campaign, followed by a final action by the ground troops. Both of these avenues, all other considerations aside, would not actually have dealt the lasting blow that needed to be dealt. Therefore, although this procedure has a higher cost, a path based on the time factor was chosen. More time, more attrition of the enemy force, greater results; and above all, longer lasting. Moscow once again bet on its ability to exploit this factor better than anyone else, and won the bet.
Upon closer inspection, what is happening in Palestine is very similar. Even if the balance of power appears to be reversed, compared to the Ukrainian front, the strategy implemented by the Resistance Front (in a broad sense, not just the Palestinian one) somehow follows that adopted by the Russians in Ukraine.
The Resistance forces know that the enemy needs to conclude quickly, for a series of reasons ranging from economic aspects to internal and international balances. For this reason, the US-Israel axis is making a considerable effort, trying to achieve at least tactical victories that will allow it to accelerate the conclusion of the conflict - or at least temporarily freeze it to catch its breath.
Obviously, the gigantic problem that Israeli-Americans have to deal with, even before the armed resistance, is the lack of real political objectives, and therefore of a strategy developed according to these. And by real we mean realistically actionable, therefore political in the strict sense, and certainly not the messianic dreams with which they are replacing them. Not to mention the fact that the two poles of the axis also have non-overlapping interests and objectives, even if in many ways they coincide.
It should be kept in mind that the Resistance's operation is much larger than it appears. Not only is there complete coordination between the political-military formations of the Palestinian Resistance, which have a Joint Operations Room (the command and coordination center of the various brigades) operating in Gaza. An additional coordination center has been present in Lebanon for some time, in which - in addition to the Palestinian groups - some of the Iraqi and Syrian militias, and obviously Hezbollah, are also represented. There is no certain information on the presence of Ansarullah (Yemen). In this way, all the Resistance forces can coordinate their actions at a strategic level, calibrating the pressure on Israel and the USA, and alternating it between the various open fronts - Gaza, the Israeli-Lebanese border, the Red Sea...
The intent is to keep Israeli forces engaged in a war of attrition, the level of intensity of which varies over time - so as to be tactically unpredictable - and in space; it can worsen in Shuja'iya as in Khan Younis, in Metula or in Eilat, in the Golan Heights or in Kiryat Shmona.
All the formations that are part of the Resistance Front are capable of developing a much more intense and massive attack against Israeli territory, but this is not the intent - since any acceleration would produce an equally intense and massive reaction; the objective is instead to save one's forces as much as possible, and focus on the attrition of Tsahal over medium-long periods.
The situation for the Israeli forces, despite the genocidal bombings on the Gaza Strip acting as a smoke screen, is increasingly difficult. The losses, in men and equipment, are starting to become significant, and above all the difficulty - on the part of the IDF - in managing tactically the comparison. On the Lebanese front, they are forced to keep a significant part of the ground forces and air force engaged; and despite having deployed 8 of the 12 Iron Dome batteries (two of which have certainly already been destroyed or damaged), the threat from Hezbollah's missiles is so significant that a large part of the settlements and cities near the border have been evacuated - with the consequent damage to the economy, and growing internal tensions.
The blockade of the Bab el-Mandeeb Strait for ships headed to Israel, in addition to the attacks on Eilat and nearby settlements, are practically defenseless, and the Prosperity Guardian naval operation will hardly be able to resolve them, unless at the cost of seriously putting NATO fleets are in danger, and risk a total blockade even on the Strait of Hormuz - a disaster for Western economies.
The situation is certainly no better in the Gaza Strip, where Israeli troops have to deal with an elusive enemy, whose measures they are unable to take, and which maintains intact the ability not only to resist penetration attempts, but also to develop tactical offensives. The periodic missile launches towards Ashkelon or Tel Aviv, the bloody ambushes against IDF units, the continuous pounding - at close range - against Israeli armor, testify to the persistence of significant firepower, and above all of unaltered tactical coordination.
Israeli information sources testify that the number of dead and injured is kept covered, and is only partially communicated. The withdrawal of the Golani Brigade, perhaps the best unit of the IDF, due to the losses suffered, as well as the failure to achieve the tactical objectives continually assumed to have been achieved (the network of underground tunnels is clearly still fully operational, not a single one has been discovered command center, a single weapons depot, only one of the factories that produce missiles...), are but the most obvious signs of this difficulty.
More than two months after the start of the fighting, not only has the IDF not yet penetrated all the urban areas of the Strip, but it continues to be engaged in firefights even where penetration has occurred. None of the prisoners were freed by military force - only two attempts tragically failed, and the only case they could have boasted about was wiped out by an obtuse application of the rules of engagement. For at least a couple of weeks the death of Yahya Sinwar has been assumed to be imminent, but he continues to escape.
Despite all the power he has at his disposal (aviation, tanks and armor, artillery, electronic intelligence...), Tsahal is unable to prevail.
Even the communication war clearly sees the advantage of the Resistance forces, who unequivocally document on video the attacks carried out against the Israeli forces, while they string together barbaric figures one after the other, showing propaganda films which are also poorly constructed on real set.
Exactly like in Ukraine, therefore, also in Palestine the forces fighting against US-NATO imperialism implement a strategy of attrition of the opposing forces, and in both cases they focus on the time factor to put the enemy in difficulty. Which, moreover, today finds itself engaged on two fronts, with the difficulties of one reverberating on the other, while its adversaries act separately.
Proof that geography is unavoidable, and that politics cannot ignore it. And today the global situation is that the traditional tools of Anglo-American imperial domination, thalassocratic power and long-distance projection, have had their day and are inadequate. The empire is forced to fight very problematic and demanding wars on different fronts; and both naval power and that deriving from the most extensive network of military bases in history risk turning into a problem rather than an asset. For the simple reason that enemies are no longer so weak that they can be quickly crushed (but can actually strike in turn), and that they know how to choose the most effective strategies and tactics to fight.
The empire has lost its most powerful weapon, its ability to deter. And, forced to use force in times and ways that are not congenial to him, he retreats. His enemies, however, challenge him, no longer retreat in the face of the threat. They engage in combat, they dictate the times and methods. And to win, he just needs to resist one more minute.
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