THE ROAR OF MICE

Frustration and weakness, this is essentially what is behind the resumption of war in the Middle East. The US attack against Yemen, completely cold (even though the blockade of ships connected to Israel had been announced, nothing had been done yet), is clearly a message directed at Iran, which in his simplistic logic Trump considers the instigator of Ansarullah.

Everything stems from a double error of judgment on the part of the United States. That of being able to impose on Tehran an agreement not only on nuclear power but also on strategic weapons (hypersonic missiles), and that of being able to obtain this result through discreet diplomacy and a series of strong threats. To this end, Washington asked Moscow to act as mediator with the Islamic Republic, and sent a letter through third-party diplomatic channels. But it also accompanied these steps with the usual (public) threat of tightening sanctions and so on. The result was that Iran not only rejected the letter, but did so with an open tone of defiance, essentially declaring that it was ready to face the threatened consequences, whatever they were, and to respond appropriately.

Of course, this felt like a slap in the face, in the eyes of Trump, who insists on pursuing his international policy by continually resorting to threats, which may be fine with Panama, but certainly not with a medium regional power, which has stood up to the United States for 40 years. Hence the decision to strike Yemen, explicitly indicating it as an Iranian proxy, and even adding the further threat that any Yemeni reaction will be considered as carried out by Iran itself. In short, out of frustration at not having been able to bend Tehran to his will, he made the stupidest move that could be made. Because not only was the Yemeni reaction largely predictable (four missile attacks against the US naval squadron in the Red Sea in 72 hours, and a missile attack against Israel), but this escalation will lead nowhere, much less Iran to the negotiating table. As Einstein said, “madness is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results”. The US-led coalition has in fact tried to stop the Yemeni armed forces for many months, without even the slightest success, and causing various damages to the ships deployed in the Red Sea. And Sana'a has won a war, which lasted years, against Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries, largely supported by the United States. So threatening "hell" now is starting to sound like a broken record.

Likewise, Netanyahu's decision - with Trump's approval, to restart the bombing of Gaza (we are already at almost 500 deaths) arises from an identical frustration. Tel Aviv, in fact, had accepted a ceasefire agreement, because the US had insisted, and because the Israeli army and society needed it. The idea was to do as is customary in Western countries: sign an agreement knowing that it will not be respected, and start trying to stretch it to suit one's own convenience the next day. But, in particular, the spectacular management that the Resistance made of the prisoner exchange operations has strongly undermined the government's official narrative, according to which the 15 months of war had almost annihilated the Palestinian fighting formations. And this has obviously made the Israeli leaders very nervous. They therefore began to violate the agreements, in the belief that they could force the Resistance's hand, believing that it was in a position to accept new rules anyway. Having instead encountered an unwillingness to give in - and in the presence of conditions of increasing precariousness for the government - Netanyahu is playing the war card again. But obviously what was said before also applies here, about always doing the same thing... Israel, in fact, bombed Gaza for over 450 days, invaded it from north to south, to find itself exhausted in the end and without having removed the political-military power of Hamas and other Palestinian organizations. And now it is proposing the same scheme again. And in fact the missiles are starting again from Yemen, any hypothesis of appeasement with the Arab countries - Saudis in the lead - is moving away again, and the entire US geopolitical plan (the indispensable ally) is stopped, which risks being not at all short. Furthermore, as always happens in every escalation that does not arise from a calibrated political and military calculation, events risk spiraling into an incalculable spiral. For example, after Trump declared that any missile fired by the Yemenis would be considered as if it had been launched by Iran, Ansarullah attacked the USS Harry Truman twice; and this puts the USA in the position or to deny what the president said, or to be forced to attack Iran, triggering a conflict that may make Israeli fanatics happy but certainly goes against the plans of the United States.

The mouse's roar does not scare the lion, but it risks fueling chaos.